Monthly Update - September

We're pleased to share MN Fund's monthly update for September 2026. The markets started to show strength for the entire ecosystem, and that resulted in a strong return on investment for the entire fund as the strategic adjustment to be allocating more towards the base assets has been paying off.

MN Fund closed September at +40.05% gross, outperforming Bitcoin by 50.10% gross since inception of the fund.

Gross Return

+40.05%

Gross YTD '26

+11.33%

Gross ITD

+22.62%

Main Driver

Base Assets

The markets have turned upwards, meaning that the markets require more confidence to be seeing a broad upwards move in the entire ecosystem.

Historically, this upwards move starts with a strong impulse of Bitcoin, of which liquidity will be dragged towards Bitcoin. The longer Bitcoin consolidates, the more the liquidity will be spread out towards other assets in the ecosystem.

That's why our team has decided to allocate more towards the base assets over the period of July/August as the expectancy is to generate higher returns within the base assets over the coming months.

Base Assets

Over the period of July and August, fundamental signals were provided that on-chain activity was rising, while prices weren't following that path. In that same period, technical signs were also given on the charts signaling that a potential bottom was taking place on the markets, through which a strategic shift was taken where a larger allocation was made towards the base assets in the form of NEAR Protocol, SUI and ONDO.

This allocation has resulted in a positive return for the fund, through which those ONDO and NEAR have been trimmed off due to the underlying short-term risks of holding those assets and the asymmetric opportunities that are being seen in the markets.

Additionally, a tactical trade was made in GRASS, which resulted in a 100%+ return on the allocation and has been realized.

Going into October, the allocations have been shifted towards an increased position in Bitcoin and Ethereum and new positions into SUI, EigenLayer and Plume Network and the expectancy remains positive for the markets. Due to that current thesis, the base asset allocations remain lifted versus the automatic trading.

Algorithmic Trading

The algorithmic trading naturally performs the best in slow upwards trending markets and/or a range-bound period. Heavier oscillations to the upside are generally not the best nature for the underlying code and therefore the strategic decision was made to build in more risk measures in the form of higher amounts of reserves to balance out the risk of trading in these markets.

Other than that, the return of the algorithm has provided a 15.56% return for the month, which is significantly higher than the benchmark.

OTC Trading

The strategic decision is made to not be taking any OTC deal in these current market circumstances, as the potential return on the base assets versus the risk profile are outweighing the potential of doing OTC trades. The expectancy is that this will change going into the fourth quarter of the year.

September broke its reputation as crypto's weakest month. Bitcoin ground higher through a hawkish Fed and a regulatory setback, then finished the month with a late rally.

A Green "Rektember"

Bitcoin opened the month around $78,500 after its 25% August surge. Early in the month spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $730.9 million in a single day, their largest daily inflow since January, as BTC reclaimed $80,000, although CryptoQuant noted that the move was driven mostly by short covering rather than new long positions. After a pause around the Fed meeting, the rally resumed in the final third of the month. By September 22, Bitcoin was up roughly 10% for the month, its best September since 2012 on that dataset, driven by spot ETF demand and a substantial derivatives short squeeze. With one day left, Bitcoin was trading near $83,600, up about 7.3% for the month.

The Fed Hikes for the First Time Since 2023

The hawkish tone from Jackson Hole carried through. On September 16 the Fed raised rates by 25bps to a 3.75–4% range, following a hot August CPI print. Warsh framed the move as removing accommodation rather than tightening, and the median dot now sits at 4.125% for 2026 and 2027. The US 10-year yield had crossed 5% by mid-September, its highest level since 2007. Crypto absorbed the hike and rallied in the second half of the month, which suggests the move was largely priced in.

CLARITY Act Blocked in the Senate

The September 15 cloture vote failed. The Senate voted 49–50 against taking up the bill, with no Democratic support, a day after Republicans released what they called the final text. Senator Tillis voted no in order to move to reconsider, which keeps a second cloture vote available. Polymarket priced the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 6.5% after the vote, and fewer than three weeks of scheduled session remain.

Ethereum: Choppier Flows, Steady Price

Institutional demand for ETH cooled after August's record streak. Spot ETH ETFs saw outflows around the Fed meeting, followed by a four-day inflow streak from September 18 to 23, bringing cumulative net inflows to $13.7 billion. ETH pushed to around $2,804 late in the month before slipping back into the upper $2,600s.

September showed the first signals of a potential start of an upwards trending market as Bitcoin continued to show strength towards new yearly highs above $86,000. The Clarity Act didn't provide a sell-off. It provided the exact opposite with bipartisan support of providing a bill for digital assets in the United States.

This bipartisan response triggered strength into the entire ecosystem of crypto in which it's possible to see this trend continue going forward.

If you would like to discuss September's events, the fund's positioning, or anything else, you are welcome to schedule a call with Michaël.

Alternatively, you are more than welcome to call us at +31 6 16010255 (WhatsApp possible as well).

To our investors, thank you for your continued trust in MN Fund.